Now we talked about the economic recession we are in due to this pandemic, but with all things in consideration, when can the economy come out of the recession? Frankly, no one knows, but by evaluating history and assessing the government's spending habits we can make an educated guess. From an economist's point of view, a recession ends when certain market requirements are met. From a personal point of view, you might wonder most about your ability to work, pay your bills and secure your financial future so we could see where these opinions could conflict with one another. We’re going to certainly begin a recovery by year's end, however we won’t be back to a normal economy until the second half of 2021 (third and fourth quarters). If we have an early vaccine that could mitigate the virus, Pfizer’s been talking about a potential distributable vaccine by the fall, that would make an enormous difference. We’ve had a sloppy closure for the virus, and we’re having a bit of a sloppy opening, thus, you’re not going to have business confidence return and consumer confidence return until people truly feel safe which realistically will only happen in the second half of 2021. Experts claim that in order to scale the vaccine to everyone, it would take easily one year, so it is safe to conclude that there is a direct correspondence between scaling the vaccine and re opening the economy in a safe manner.
To recap, it is imperative that the federal government protects the most vulnerable people economically during this crisis while still maintaining their budget. The government needs to design these welfare programs in a way where they don’t reduce the economic incentives to work, but they have it large enough to protect people at the lower end of the economic scale.
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